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The next decade will define the next century.

Can you predict it?

→ Submit
Deadline
August 1, 2026
11:59 PM ET
Open To
Anyone, 18+
No Finance Background Required
Roundtable
Top Finalists
Defend Your Forecast
5 Winners
$25K + Offer
Award + Career Opportunity
Challenge Overview

Two seismic forces are reshaping the global order at the same time

The rise of Modern Mercantilism is redrawing the rules of trade, policy, and power. Artificial Intelligence is rewriting what economies, governments, and people can do. These forces aren't arriving in sequence. They're colliding right now, amplifying each other in ways the world has never navigated before.

Bridgewater Associates and Global Citizen believe the best ideas can come from anyone, anywhere. For the second year, we're inviting you to predict what this radically different world will look like.

Who Wins? Who Loses?
Do You Know?
The Challenge

Forecast the next decade. Defend it.

Now we want your sharpest thinking. How does Modern Mercantilism—governments actively reshaping trade, industrial policy, and national power—collide with AI, which will touch every corner of the macroeconomy? What does that collision produce?

For 50 years, Bridgewater has studied the cause-and-effect forces that shape economies and markets—turning that understanding into timeless and universal investment principles, systematized and stress tested against every market cycle in history. Today, we are building AI systems designed to do the same—to find signals in complexity, stress test assumptions, and push the boundaries of what is knowable.

We believe the world moves for logical reasons. Reasons that can be studied, understood, and predicted.

We're not looking for the loudest take or the safest one. We're looking for the most well-reasoned forecasts that hold up because the logic underneath them does.

Your submission has three parts.

Submission Breakdown: The Brief, In Full
What to Submit
Create a minimum of 10 binary (yes/no) forecasts, each with an assigned probability and clear, objective resolution criteria.
Time Frames
Cover short- and medium-term time frames (1-5 years).
Focus
All forecasts must relate to Modern Mercantilism, AI, or their intersection.
Calibration
Calibration matters—your probabilities should reflect genuine conviction, not hedging.
Strong Example

“There is a 70% chance that the US effective tariff rate on imports will average over 10% from 2026–2028.”

Avoid

“Political polarization will increase.”

Framework
Present a coherent framework that ties your forecasts together into a broader view of how these two forces will reshape the world.
Explain
Explain the key cause-and-effect dynamics you believe will drive global events.
Reference Forecasts
Reference your most impactful forecasts from Part 1 to anchor your thinking.
Visual Support
Charts and data are welcome.
Focus
This is about synthesis—not justifying each forecast individually.
Use It Your Way
This section is yours to use as you see fit—explain the reasoning behind your forecasts, share supporting models, or go deeper on the analysis that matters most.
Length
We recommend 5 pages or less.

Total submissions should aim for 10 pages or less. This isn't a hard limit—we love great, differentiated analysis—but our reviewers may stop reading after page 10. Unless it's earth-shatteringly awesome.

01 · Who can apply?

Anyone, anywhere, 18 years or older. Forecasting the Future is a global challenge—sharp thinkers from any background, not just finance. Please see the full eligibility requirements here.

02 · What is the deadline?

Submissions close August 1, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Finalists will be selected to attend the roundtable, and the 5 winners will be announced shortly after.

03 · Do I need a finance background?

No. We care about how you think, not what you already know. The best forecasts are well-reasoned, well-calibrated, and tied to real cause-and-effect dynamics.

04 · How are submissions judged?

Forecasts are scored on calibration and resolution. Frameworks and analysis are evaluated by Bridgewater researchers for clarity, originality, and rigor.

05 · Can I submit as a team?

No. Submissions are individual.

06 · Can I use AI tools?

You can use any tools you want. We’ll evaluate the output. If it reads as generic LLM output without a sharp human point of view, it won’t make it past round one.

The Prize

What Is at Stake

Submission opens the door to a four-stage progression—each step narrows, and the stakes continue to rise.

Stage 01All
Submit

Open to anyone, anywhere, 18 years or older. No finance background required.

Stage 02Top Forecasters
Roundtable

The top forecasters are invited to a Bridgewater-hosted investor roundtable to defend their forecasts in the arena—a live, structured debate on the predictions you've made.

Stage 035 Winners
$25,000

The top forecasters each receive a $25,000 award.

Stage 04Offer
Career Opportunity

Top forecasters are considered for a role or internship at Bridgewater Associates.

Meet One of Our Winners

Nick Hamilton: From Forecaster to Bridgewater Investment Associate

See the 2025 Challenge and Winners
Prepare

Ground your forecast.

Videos, conversations, and written research from Bridgewater—enough context to ground a sharp submission.

Who Wins?

Submit your forecasts.

This is not a ceremony. It's a live test of conviction—defending your framework under pressure, with a sharp point of view.

Applications close August 1, 2026 · 11:59 PM ET.

Submit Your Forecasts →
About Our Partnership

Bridgewater has spent half a century mapping the cause-and-effect forces that shape economies and markets. Global Citizen has spent more than a decade mobilizing millions of people to act on what those forces produce. In 2022, we recognized what the other had—and what we shared: a belief that understanding the world is the precondition for changing it.

That belief has driven everything since. In the first year, we gave Bridgewater employees a platform to join the millions of Global Citizens taking action on the defining challenges of our time—from global poverty and debt relief to equality and climate financing. That advocacy, combined with Bridgewater's research into the economic potential of Africa, helped support the World Bank's IDA21 replenishment—securing a record $100 billion commitment.

Then we opened the idea meritocracy to the world: a global forecasting challenge that drew over 1,000 submissions from 120 countries.

Four years. Advocacy. Research. And now a global competition—in its second year, to find the sharpest minds on the planet. This is what the partnership looks like in practice.

Selected Moments · 2022—2025
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