01 · Who can apply?
Anyone, anywhere, 18 years or older. Forecasting the Future is a global challenge—sharp thinkers from any background, not just finance. Please see the full eligibility requirements here.
The rise of Modern Mercantilism is redrawing the rules of trade, policy, and power. Artificial Intelligence is rewriting what economies, governments, and people can do. These forces aren't arriving in sequence. They're colliding right now, amplifying each other in ways the world has never navigated before.
Bridgewater Associates and Global Citizen believe the best ideas can come from anyone, anywhere. For the second year, we're inviting you to predict what this radically different world will look like.
Now we want your sharpest thinking. How does Modern Mercantilism—governments actively reshaping trade, industrial policy, and national power—collide with AI, which will touch every corner of the macroeconomy? What does that collision produce?
For 50 years, Bridgewater has studied the cause-and-effect forces that shape economies and markets—turning that understanding into timeless and universal investment principles, systematized and stress tested against every market cycle in history. Today, we are building AI systems designed to do the same—to find signals in complexity, stress test assumptions, and push the boundaries of what is knowable.
We believe the world moves for logical reasons. Reasons that can be studied, understood, and predicted.
We're not looking for the loudest take or the safest one. We're looking for the most well-reasoned forecasts that hold up because the logic underneath them does.
Your submission has three parts.
“There is a 70% chance that the US effective tariff rate on imports will average over 10% from 2026–2028.”
“Political polarization will increase.”
Total submissions should aim for 10 pages or less. This isn't a hard limit—we love great, differentiated analysis—but our reviewers may stop reading after page 10. Unless it's earth-shatteringly awesome.
Anyone, anywhere, 18 years or older. Forecasting the Future is a global challenge—sharp thinkers from any background, not just finance. Please see the full eligibility requirements here.
Submissions close August 1, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Finalists will be selected to attend the roundtable, and the 5 winners will be announced shortly after.
No. We care about how you think, not what you already know. The best forecasts are well-reasoned, well-calibrated, and tied to real cause-and-effect dynamics.
Forecasts are scored on calibration and resolution. Frameworks and analysis are evaluated by Bridgewater researchers for clarity, originality, and rigor.
No. Submissions are individual.
You can use any tools you want. We’ll evaluate the output. If it reads as generic LLM output without a sharp human point of view, it won’t make it past round one.
Submission opens the door to a four-stage progression—each step narrows, and the stakes continue to rise.
Open to anyone, anywhere, 18 years or older. No finance background required.
The top forecasters are invited to a Bridgewater-hosted investor roundtable to defend their forecasts in the arena—a live, structured debate on the predictions you've made.
The top forecasters each receive a $25,000 award.
Top forecasters are considered for a role or internship at Bridgewater Associates.
Videos, conversations, and written research from Bridgewater—enough context to ground a sharp submission.
This is not a ceremony. It's a live test of conviction—defending your framework under pressure, with a sharp point of view.
Applications close August 1, 2026 · 11:59 PM ET.
Submit Your Forecasts →Bridgewater has spent half a century mapping the cause-and-effect forces that shape economies and markets. Global Citizen has spent more than a decade mobilizing millions of people to act on what those forces produce. In 2022, we recognized what the other had—and what we shared: a belief that understanding the world is the precondition for changing it.
That belief has driven everything since. In the first year, we gave Bridgewater employees a platform to join the millions of Global Citizens taking action on the defining challenges of our time—from global poverty and debt relief to equality and climate financing. That advocacy, combined with Bridgewater's research into the economic potential of Africa, helped support the World Bank's IDA21 replenishment—securing a record $100 billion commitment.
Then we opened the idea meritocracy to the world: a global forecasting challenge that drew over 1,000 submissions from 120 countries.
Four years. Advocacy. Research. And now a global competition—in its second year, to find the sharpest minds on the planet. This is what the partnership looks like in practice.